Liar.

Stories like this ought to give pause to those who make the argument that the Republican Party has finally regained its mojo and is back on track to attaining majority status:

Et tu, Rob Portman? Ye of sensibility and rectitude? Ye of maturity and political resolve?  Despite inquires from Cincinnati Enquirer and Plain Dealer, Portman’s campaign won’t  directly answer the question of whether the candidate believes that President Obama is a citizen.  (Obma is.) So now, we’re up to five Republican Senate candidates — major ones, not including J.D. Hayworth in Arizona for the moment — who have flirted with Birtherism.

Several of these candidates have later corrected their initial hesitation, but it precisely that initial hesitation that contains so much information about what Republican candidates fear right now.

In the (slightly less than) fourteen months of the Obama Presidency, there’s no question that Republicans have improved their national standing to some extent. But it’s important to remember that they’ve gained ground amidst the worst job market in more than fifty years, and they’ve done so while engaging nonstop in political warfare against a majority party that has been more preoccupied with the actual (and messy) process of governing than it has in playing politics.

Still, Republicans — despite having the political advantage of a terrible economy and having been mostly ignored by their opponents — have at best begun to approach parity in public opinion polls.

Now that we’re getting closer to the election, no longer will Republican attacks go unanswered. Democrats are going to start firing back at Republicans with increasing regularity. There will be less intraparty fighting. The economy will continue its path of recovery. And in all likelihood the signature accomplishment of health care reform will have been achieved.

And so as we head into the beginning stages of the 2010 midterm elections, you have a Democratic Party that will start to unify after having successfully implemented major reforms. More importantly, you have a Democratic Party base that will see that the party was in fact able to deliver on important pieces of its agenda, giving them confidence that the long list of things to be done can be achieved.

Meanwhile, you have a completely ineffective Republican Party that has no new ideas, and is almost entirely animated by its hatred of President Obama — hatred that is so extreme that its own U.S. Senate candidates can’t even repudiate the wildly insane notion that President Obama is not in fact a natural born American citizen.

The notion that this GOP is anywhere near regaining majority status is almost as crazy as the birthers who are bringing it down.

By Michael J.W. StickingsFirst, just a couple of weeks ago, it was for voting with the Democrats to move a jobs bill forward, now it’s for announcing he’ll vote to end a Republican filibuster on an unemployment benefits and tax credits bill. It’s for c…

Every once in a while, I’m right about something. Me, on July 7, 2009:

With 14 months until the Florida Republican Senate primary in 2010, popular Gov. Charlie Crist is riding high in the polls against his challenger, former state House Speaker Marco Rubio. But the current numbers are deceiving, and as counterintuitive as it might seem, Crist is likely the underdog.

You see, Crist is an anachronism in the modern GOP. He’s a moderate with a streak of social liberalism, which places him at odds with the conservative voters who will dominate the closed primary’s electorate. Crist’s strong support among Democrats and independents won’t help him with party regulars, while his centrist record will provide ample fodder for Rubio and his allies to decimate the governor’s standing with the right-wing base [...]

This is a war of attrition, and 14 months will be more than enough for the combined might of the conservative movement to grind Crist down. Republican primary voters aren’t interested in moderation or practicality, and Crist can’t deliver the ideological purity they demand. The poll numbers should tighten by the first quarter of 2010, and Crist seems likely to face the same dilemma that Sen. Arlen Specter (Pa.) wrestled with a short while ago — can he remain a Republican and win a primary?

Note, this was crazy talk when I wrote it last summer. As late as October 2009, Crist was safely above the 50 percent mark. But the dynamics of the race were obvious, they just needed to play out.

Still, it turns out I wasn’t 100 percent right. I expected tied poll numbers at this stage of the game, not this:

Rubio now leads Crist 60-28, including a staggering 71-17 lead with conservatives. Crist has a 49-36 advantage with party moderates, but they account for just 31% of likely primary voters compared to 65% who describe themselves as conservative.

Rubio is benefiting from a widely held sentiment among Florida GOP voters that Congressional Republicans are too liberal and that Crist would add to the problem. 41% of them think that the party leadership in Washington is too liberal, and with those folks Rubio holds an 83-10 lead. 50% think that Crist himself is too liberal and with those voters Rubio’s advantage expands even wider to 90-5.

Nate Silver offers four options for Crist, and determines that going indie is his best option. But Nate inexplicably leaves off Crist’s most obvious option: become a Democrat.

Our general election Senate numbers, which we’ll release tomorrow, find that Crist is a good deal more popular with Democrats now than he is with Republicans. His path to any future electoral victory may come as an independent or perhaps even as a Democrat.

I’ve written it before, I’ll write it again: there are only two candidates who can win that Senate seat in November — Rubio and Crist. And Crist won’t do it as a Republican.  As a Democrat, he has a fighting chance.

Steve Benen:

“Obstructionism,” for example, only refers to Democratic minorities opposing Republican proposals.

“Tyranny” is found when an elected Democratic majority passes legislation that Republicans don’t like.

“Reconciliation” describes a Senate process that Republicans are allowed to use to overcome Democratic “obstructionism.”

“Terrorism” refers to acts of political violence committed by people who aren’t white guys.

“Bipartisanship” is found when Democrats agree to pass Republican legislation.

“Big government” describes a dangerous phenomenon to be avoided, except in cases relating to reproductive rights or gays.

“Treason” refers to Democrats criticizing a Republican administration during a war.

“Patriotism” refers to Republicans criticizing a Democratic administration during a war.

“Fiscal responsibility” is a national priority related to keeping our deficit in check, which only applies when Republicans are in the minority.

“Parliamentarian” is a seemingly independent official on the Hill who Senate Republicans are allowed to fire when the GOP disapproves of his/her rulings.

“Government-run health care” doesn’t refer to popular government-run health care programs like Medicare.

“The heartland” is the most wonderful place in America, even if no conservative pundit would be caught dead living there.

“Serving your country” is honorable if you’re a Republican, but a subject of derision when Democrats do it.

Your turn.

The fallout has begun from the offensive, insulting and juvenile fundraising pitch by the GOP at its retreat in Boca Grande. Via Ben Smith at Politico:

A prominent Evangelical figure and Republican donor says he will end his contributions to the organized Republican Party in reaction to the leaked fundraising presentation that advised using “fear” to solicit contributions and displayed an image of President Obama as the Joker from Batman.

Mark DeMoss, who heads a major Christian public relations firm in Atlanta and served as a liaison to the Evangelical community for Mitt Romney in 2008, wrote Chairman Michael Steele yesterday that he was “ashamed” of the presentation, calling depictions of Obama, Speaker Nancy Pelosi, and Majority Leader Harry Reid “shameful, immature and uncivil, at best.”

Ben Smith has the full text of DeMoss’ letter, copies of which were enclosed to all Republican Party Committees as well as the Congressional leadership. But here’s the key graf:

While I realize your office made steps to distance you from this presentation I’m afraid the presentation is representative of a culture and mindset within the Republican National Committee; consequently, I will no longer contribute to any fundraising entity of our Party—but will contribute only to individual candidates I choose to support.

The media may be generally unwilling to discuss Republican deficiencies as we approach the 2010 election, but the culture underlying this presentation ought to become a subject for discussion. This modern version of the GOP has shown itself to be an insular and insolent Party that thinks its insulting and degrading message will play well across the country. And the turning tide shows they’re not entirely right.

Rep. Alan Grayson drives Republicans crazy. Insane. They hate him more than probably anyone else in the House, because he doesn’t mince words, doesn’t suffer GOP fools, doesn’t run scared in what is a lean-GOP district (R+2).

They also hate him because he knows how to poke them in the eye, time and time again. Like throwing his name into a Republican primary question. From his press release:

Rep. Grayson Has Huge Lead in Republican Primary

No, that’s not a typo.  According to a poll of registered Republicans last week, Congressman Alan Grayson has an enormous lead in the Republican primary for Florida Congressional District 8 (FL-8).

Of course, Grayson is a Democrat.  Yet Grayson is far and away the leading choice among registered Republicans in FL-8.  In fact, he has almost twice as much support among Republicans as all his Republican opponents combined.

In the poll, Grayson won the support of 27.8% of registered Republicans.  None of Grayson’s 13 opponents scored higher than 3.7%.  Their combined performance was only 14.5%.  The remaining 57.7% of registered Republicans were undecided.

30.1% of registered Republican women support Grayson.  And Grayson has the support of 25.5% of registered Republican men.

Grayson also has an enormous lead in name recognition.  76.9% of Republicans know Grayson; none of his opponents scored higher than 15.1%.  81.4% of Republican men know Grayson, and 72.4% of Republican women know him.

Grayson received high marks from Republicans for his Constitution initiative.  Over half of all Republicans said that they were more likely to vote for Grayson because he passed a resolution urging high schools to teach the Constitution, and he had distributed tens of thousands of copies of the Constitution throughout the district.

Interestingly, Grayson is more popular among Republicans than Republican Governor Charlie Crist is.  42% of Republicans have an unfavorable opinion of Crist, far more than those who have an unfavorable opinion of Grayson [...]

The poll was conducted on Feb. 26th.  There were 324 respondents, all registered Republicans in FL-8.  The margin of error was 5%.  The poll was conducted by Middleton Market Research.

Cheeky, to say the least. Of course, Republicans are simply besides themselves.

“This is the most bogus thing I’ve ever seen in my life,” said Andy Seré, Regional Press Secretary for the National Republican Congressional Committee.

That seems to be their stock response whenever they see poll results that don’t match their preconceived reality. Remember their response to polling showing strong secessionist sentiment in their ranks, or the birther stuff? The NRCC can always duplicate the poll to try and prove it wrong, but it won’t. Maybe Rasmussen will fill the void, eager as he is to carry the Right’s water with his magical (and secretively funded) polling.

In any case, Republicans expect Democrats in Grayson-style districts to run scared, and most do. National election prognosticators duly slot incumbents like Grayson into the “going to lose” category, because as everyone (in DC) knows, strong Democrats never win reelection.

Yet there is Grayson, poking them with a stick. Mocking them to their face. The GOP has no idea how to respond.

And it’s a thing of beauty.

Update: More in this rec list diary.

Sen. Jim Bunning, the Kentucky Republican who single-handedly delayed unemployment benefits for 400,000 desperate Americans and forced an unnecessary furlough of another 2,000, should…

By Capt. FoggIt’s funny how the things that characterized the United States in its best and most prosperous years are being characterized as bad for the country and a one way valve in the sewer pipe that leads to Marxism, while the days before we ha…

By Michael J.W. Stickings”Independent” Democrat Harold Ford Jr. has decided not to challenge New York Sen. Kirsten Gillibrand. As he writes in an op-ed in today’s Times:I’ve examined this race in every possible way, and I keep returning to the same fun…

CERES, Calif. — Kent Hancock can’t remember tougher economic times in the two decades he’s sold used cars in California’s Central Valley.

He brings home less than half the money he cleared a few years ago and has dipped into savings to …

If you are wondering where the Wrap was in its normal Friday night slot, I’d love to be able to spin a tale about a wild Friday evening. Actually, it was a simpler, and less fascinating, cause: the computer I normally write the Wrap on was being most uncooperative.

And, with that, there is a ton of political news to peruse and numbers to crunch, so let’s get on with it in this special weekend edition of the Wrap….

THE U.S. SENATE

DE-Sen: Ras Shows Coons Gaining on Castle (In Their Polling)
Prognosticators like the Cook Report gave the GOP a near-lock on the U.S. Senate seat in Delaware, largely on the heels of a post-Biden announcement Rasmussen poll showing Republican Mike Castle with a nearly thirty-point lead over Democratic challenger Chris Coons. One month later, Ras finds the margin similar to the DK/R2K poll released the same day: they have Mike Castle at 53%, with Chris Coons at 32% (our poll was 53-35). This represents an eight-point net movement in Coons’ direction, when compared to a Ras poll from just four weeks ago.

NV-Sen: Lowden’s Family Largesse Under Fire
Sue Lowden has gradually, over the past couple of months, adopted the mantle of the GOP frontrunner in the primary to name a challenger to embattled Senate Majority Leader Harry Reid. That status might take a slight hit, however, after a pretty brutal revelation from the Las Vegas Sun. It turns out that Lowden, who owns a corporation that runs a hotel/casino in Laughlin, Nevada, laid off over 100 workers during 2009 while at the same time paying out a $200,000 bonus to…her husband Paul. The article also noted that the Lowden’s combined salary was just shy of a million dollars last year, not exactly the kind of thing that will endear the tea party elements in Nevada to her.

NC-Sen: New Numbers In Both Primary and General Elex
Two different pollsters released numbers at the end of the week on the potentially competitive U.S. Senate race pitting freshman Republican Richard Burr against a trio of prospective Democratic challengers. In that Democratic primary, GOP pollsters Civitas find that undecided is lapping the field: 77% of voters do not currently express a preference. Of those who do, Secretary of State Elaine Marshall (14%) has a lead over attorney Kenneth Lewis (5%) and former state legislator Cal Cunningham (4%). Among Democratic voters, Marshall’s lead expands slightly (17-5-5).

Meanwhile, Rasmussen polls the general, and puts together some very Ras-esque numbers in the race. They have Richard Burr leading Marshall by sixteen (50-34) and Cunningham by twenty-two (51-29). This is a pretty serious departure from most recent polls, which had Burr leading, but with less than 50% of the vote and with a considerably tighter margin.

UT-Sen: Merrill Cook Ready To Make A Comeback
What a week of blessings it has been for those of us who love entertaining politicos. First Jim Traficant graced us with his re-emergence on the political scene, and now he has been followed by volatile Utah Republican Merrill Cook, who announced on Thursday that he will challenge incumbent GOP Senator Bob Bennett. Cook was known, in his days in the House, as one of the most ill-tempered members of the Congress. His rationale for running against Bennett is based on the teabagger-esque meme that Bennett is too tight with Wall Street, and not tight enough with Main Street.

THE U.S. HOUSE

AZ-03: Phoenix Mayor Decides Against 2010 House Bid
While Democratic attorney Jon Hulburd continues to build a pretty formidable campaign apparatus in the GOP-leaning open seat in the Phoenix suburbs, he learned that his most formidable potential Democratic opponent will not be a candidate in 2010. Phil Gordon, the mayor of Phoenix, had been sizing up a potential House bid (either as a Democrat or an Independent). His decision to stand down essentially cedes the nomination to Hulburd, who can now sit back and watch the growing GOP primary field pummel each other into submission (and, remember, Arizona has a relatively late primary).

NM-01/NM-02/NM-03: Dems In Varying Degrees of Peril in New Mexico
PPP went into the Land of Enchantment this week, and got some pretty interesting data back. Earlier this week, the Wrap covered the gubernatorial race (where Democrat Diane Denish is a slight favorite for election over GOPer Pete Domenici Jr.). Late in the week, the PPP team added all three House seats in the state. The one Democrat trailing arguably beats expectations the most: 2nd district freshman Harry Teague. He trails former Rep. Steve Pearce, but only by two points (43-41). Given how toxic the climate is alleged to be right now for Democrats, particularly in rural areas, this is actually a surprisingly strong performance for Teague. Meanwhile, the biggest surprise (negatively speaking) for Dems might be the surprising weakness for Democrat Ben Ray Lujan in the historically Democratic in NM-03: he only leads little-known Republican Tom Mullins by six points (42-36). As Crisitunity at Swing State Project points out, however, a lot of the most Dem-friendly turf here is pretty difficult to poll. Meanwhile, in the Albuquerque-based 1st district, Democrat Martin Heinrich scores an “as expected” (maybe a smidgen better than as-expected), leading Republican Jon Barela by nine (45-36).

SD-AL: Rasmussen Gives Dem Incumbent Re-Election Edge
It will almost certainly be her toughest re-election effort since getting elected back in 2004, but even normally GOP-friendly Rasmussen gives Democratic Congresswoman Stephanie Herseth-Sandlin a narrow edge for re-election in this tough campaign cycle. Against the most well-known GOP aspirant, SD Secretary of State Chris Nelson, Herseth-Sandlin still manages a seven-point lead (45-38). She also leads two other Congressional hopefuls (state legislators Kristi Noem and Blake Curd) by double digits.

THE GUBERNATORIAL RACES

MD-Gov: Ras Puts O’Malley Near 50% in Rematch With Ehrlich
The new Rasmussen poll out of the state of Maryland falls pretty much in line with most other recent polls in the state. They have incumbent Democratic Governor Martin O’Malley staked to a six-point lead over his likely challenger, former GOP Governor Robert Ehrlich (49-43). Ehrlich has not formally declared, but this is a little different than the recent Ras attempts (see: Dino Rossi, Tommy Thompson) to recruit GOP candidates via polling, since Ehrlich had long been rumored to take the plunge.

MA-Gov: Patrick Continues To Lead Split Opposition
A new Suffolk poll is out, and it continues to show a trend that has developed over the past few months. The Massachusetts electorate continues to have a fairly dim assessment of incumbent Democratic Governor Deval Patrick, yet he continues to lead in his bid for re-election, benefitting from the anti-Patrick vote being split two ways. With health care executive Charlie Baker, Patrick opens up an eight-point lead, taking 33% to 25% for Baker and 23% for Democrat-turned-Independent Tim Cahill. If 2006 Indie nominee Christy Mihos wins the GOP nod (which is looking less likely, he trails Baker by 30 in the GOP primary), Patrick’s lead is still eight points, but a new candidate slides into the second spot, as Patrick (34%) leads Cahill (26%), with Mihos a distant third (19%). The link above is worth clicking for the commentary from SSP’s Crisitunity, who manages a pretty strong takedown of Suffolk pollster David Paleologos and his comments regarding this poll, which were oddly dismissive of Governor Patrick despite his lead.

NV-Gov: M-D Poll Confirms Gibbons’ Political Resurrection
Is Nevada’s embattled Republican Governor, Jim Gibbons, rising from the political graveyard? A poll last week, conducted by Public Opinion Strategies, had Gibbons within striking distance of current GOP frontrunner Brian Sandoval in a prospective primary battle. Mason-Dixon, polling on behalf of the Las Vegas Review-Journal, confirms those numbers, showing Gibbons gaining on Sandoval, and close to an even-money bet in the general. In that GOP primary, Sandoval leads Gibbons by just seven points (37-30), with N. Las Vegas Mayor Mike Montandon well back at 9%. Last month, M-D had Sandoval up by 16 points. Meanwhile, in a general election test against likely Democratic nominee Rory Reid, Reid only leads Gibbons now by a mere four points (42-38). If Sandoval manages to hang onto the GOP nod, he is a big favorite over the Democrat (51-29).

SD-Gov: Dems Surprisingly Competitive In McCain ‘08 State
In a bit of a head-turner from the Rasmussen team, Democratic state legislator Scott Heideprem is very much in the game with his bid to be the next governor of South Dakota. While he trails the prospective GOP frontrunner, Lt. Governor Dennis Daugaard, he manages to remain within single digits (41-32). Meanwhile, against two conservative state legislators that could sneak through the primary, Heideprem actually manages narrow leads, edging out both Dave Knudson (34-31) and Gordon Howie (37-29).

Magellan Strategies (R). 2/18. Likely Republican Primary Voters. MoE 4.1% (No trend lines)

We last polled Kentucky last August, and we had Grayson ahead 40-25. They are separate polls, with separate methodologies, so we can’t determine trendlines. We’ll be going back into Kentucky in the next couple of weeks to follow up. That said, Paul — Ron Paul’s son, and just as weird — has certainly been firing on all cylinders, combining his father’s feverish supporters with the teabagger crowd. It’s a potent mix in a closed, southern-state primary.

The GOP establishment can’t be happy about seeing their golden boy Grayson, Kentucky’s Secretary of State, trailing against a fringe nut.

That’s a screenshot from Sen. Jim DeMint’s Senate Conservatives Fund PAC, and it’s an odd strategy indeed.

Let’s game this out:

Rubio is currently the comfortable frontrunner for the GOP nomination. If he defeats Crist, he’s money for the Senate. Democratic nominee Kendrick Meeks won’t present much of a challenge.

But here’s the deal — Crist is still a fairly popular governor. If he jumps to the Democratic Party, that gives Rubio a free shot in the primary, but he’s going to win that anyway. But rather than have an easy romp in the general, he’d have to face Crist. And the general election isn’t a closed Republican election dominated by conservative activists. Independents and moderates like Crist, and Democrats will fall in line.

But by all means, DeMint should continue taunting Crist. As I’ve said, there are only two people who can win this seat — Crist and Rubio, and Crist won’t win it as a Republican. Given the choice of the two, our choice shouldn’t be hard.

Update: Jeb Bush is piling on Crist:

The former governor of Florida does some helpful tackling for Marco Rubio, spending several minutes with a Newsmax interviewer to make the point that Crist’s support of the 2009 economic stimulus can never be forgiven. It emphasizes how much Rubio’s “insurgent” campaign is one of various Republican Party interests against Crist’s machine. And it’s interesting that Bush singles out “giv[ing] the president a huge victory” as a reason Crist should have opposed the stimulus package.

Giving the president a huge victory is unforgivable, even if it helps save jobs in Florida. That, in a nutshell, is the modern Republican Party in action.