Politics

Weekly Tracking Poll: Incrementalism

Research 2000 for Daily Kos. 3/8/2010-3/11/2010. Registered Voters. MoE 2.8% (Last week’s results in parentheses):

FAVORABLE UNFAVORABLE NET CHANGE
PRESIDENT OBAMA 54 (53) 42 (43) +2
PELOSI: 35 (36) 56 (56) -1
REID: 26 (27) 67 (66) -2
McCONNELL: 20 (21) 63 (63) -1
BOEHNER: 19 (19) 63 (62) -1
CONGRESSIONAL DEMS: 38 (37) 60 (61) +2
CONGRESSIONAL GOPS: 23 (24) 68 (67) -2
DEMOCRATIC PARTY: 40 (39) 56 (57) +2
REPUBLICAN PARTY: 29 (30) 67 (66) -2

Full crosstabs here. This poll is updated every Friday morning, and you can see trendline graphs here.

Since this is now the second week since the big transition from a universe of all adults to a universe of registered voters, we can finally draw some legitimate comparisons.

Unfortunately, there isn’t a whole lot of volatility to explore. The Democrats (with the exception of the leadership) gain a couple of points in net favorability this week, while the GOPers in question lose a point or two.

That said, some other key indicators don’t show much change. The margin for Democrats on the generic ballot variation remains steady at a three-point edge for the Democrats (46-43, up a point for both sides). Meanwhile, the right track-wrong track indicator (critical for the incumbent party) only improved incrementally, from 38/60 to 39/60.

Another key stat, one we have been tracking for a long time, is voter intensity. Those numbers change only a little this week, and in the Republicans’ direction. The GOP now has a 51/21 split between those who seem likely to vote versus those who appear unlikely to vote, a net improvement of two points for the Red team (49/21 last week). Meanwhile, the net Democratic voter intensity slacked off by a point (40/32, from 39/30 last week).


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Dem Senators giving themselves nowhere to hide on public option

The list of Democratic Senators who have pledged their support for the public option through reconciliation now stands at 30, including a majority of the Democratic caucus. It also now includes the senate’s #2 Democrat, Dick Durbin.

Whether they mean it or not, Democratic Senators are approaching the point where they must deliver. It’s not clear what the tipping point will be (40? 45? 50?), but with more than half the Senate Democratic caucus on the record supporting the public option through reconciliation, that tipping point is drawing nearer. Thanks to the unflagging efforts of the public option’s supporters, Democratic Senators are running out of places to hide.

Undoubtedly, some Senators who signed the letter believe it’s an easy way to symbolically signal solidarity with their progressive base without actually needing to deliver anything. But that view is a miscalculation: the progressive base expects action from those who say they support the public option. A signature on a letter is not enough, and the people who are following this issue understand it well enough to know that the only thing worse than a Democratic Senator who publicly opposes the public option is a Democratic Senator who publicly claims to support the public option, but privately doesn’t do anything to pass it into law.

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Evan Bayh Retiring

Chris Cillizza is reporting that Evan Bayh will announce his retirement later today.

“After all these years, my passion for service to my fellow citizens is undiminished, but my desire to do so by serving in Congress has waned,” Bayh will say.

Bayh will announce the decision at a press conference later today. He was first elected to the Senate in 1998 and was re-elected easily in 2004. National Republicans had recruited former Sen. Dan Coats to challenge Bayh in 2010 although polling suggested Bayh began the race with a 20-point edge. He also had $13 million in the bank at the end of the year.

Unfortunately, while Bayh is no great shakes from a progressive–or even solidly Democratic point of view, his Republican opponents are far worse. So, thanks, Bayh, for setting up the Dems for an even more difficult future getting anything through the Senate.

Update: And it gets even better. Hotline reminds us that the deadline for filing in the race is Feb. 19–yes, this Friday.


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