Mark Horvath: Talking Post-Katrina Homelessness With Louisiana State Representative Neil Abramson
I'm honored that Neil Abramson, Louisiana State Representative, District 98 in New Orleans, would take the time to talk to me about homelessness in post-Katrina New Orleans.
Categories: World Tags: district, homelessness, louisiana state representative, mark horvath, neil abramson, post, state, state representative district, time
District Attorney in Wisconsin will not prosecute certain state gun laws after Supreme Court decision
Disturbing precedent?
Categories: World Tags: attorney, Court, district, district attorney, rest, state, state gun laws, supreme court decision
Book Bike Shut Down: Chicago Park District Prevents Man From Giving Away Free Books
The future of the Book Bike is not looking good. A Chicago Park District official approached Gabriel Levinson and his custom-built bike full of free books this weekend and asked him to leave. Due to the Chicago Park District's rules and regul...
Categories: World Tags: bike, book, chicago park, chicago park district, district, free books, levinson, man, Shut
Doug Bruce Agrees To Testify To Grand Jury After Getting Immunity
Anti-tax activist and former prosecutor Douglas Bruce today agreed to testify before a grand jury after the District Attorney's office granted him immunity.
Categories: World Tags: Anti-tax, attorney, district, district attorney, doug bruce, Grand, grand jury, immunity, Office, prosecutor
Former GOP Congressman Tom Davis: “Where Is The Wave?”
Former Virginia GOP Congressman Tom Davis shortly before night's Democratic victory in PA-12:
“If you can’t win a seat that is trending Republican in a year like this, then where is the wave?” asked Mr. Davis, who said Republicans will need to examine what went wrong. “It would be a huge upset not to win this seat.”
That Republican "wave" sweeping the nation must have hit the breakers last night.
According to Pollster.com:
More evidence from PPP:
One other key finding on our PA-12 poll- only 28% of voters in the district thought Republicans did a good job running the country while George W. Bush was President. 63% think they did not. That -35 spread is 15 points worse than the 20 spread we found for Obama's approval in the district.
Democrats remain ahead in party ID. The Republican brand is still the dog food it was in 2008.
The question is does the White House still realize this and will they go on the offensive?
Categories: Politics Tags: 2010 elections, Congressman Tom Davis, democratic victory, district, district democrats, George W. Bush, Mr. Davis, night, party id, Republican, seat, Tom Davis, Virginia, wave
PA-12 is a bellwether, unless the Democrat wins
We spent the last two weeks hearing how yesterday's House special election in PA-12 -- the only district won by Kerry that McCain won -- would be indicative of November's elections. Here was über-wanker Howard Fineman, on Chris Matthews' show:
MATTHEWS: If they beat a local guy in a Democrat meat-and-potatoes district, isn`t that a real bad sign for Nancy Pelosi?
FINEMAN: Well, Chris, I don`t like to make grandiose statements on the show. But if the Republicans take that district...
MATTHEWS: We`re looking at the vote...
(CROSSTALK)
FINEMAN: Now, it is true that that district went -- switched from Democrat to Republican in the presidential race, the only one in the country...
MATTHEWS: It`s different.
FINEMAN: OK, that is different. It is meat and potatoes. Johnstown from the time of the Johnstown flood cares about government help. They loved John Murtha for bringing in the money.
MATTHEWS: You`re so good!
FINEMAN: Pennsylvania is a bacon state. You have to bring home the bacon.
MATTHEWS: You`re so good, Howard!
(CROSSTALK)
FINEMAN: If you vote against the New Deal in that district...
MATTHEWS: Right.
FINEMAN: ... it`s lights out for the Democrats this year.
MATTHEWS: OK, I`m with you. Gregory...
FINEMAN: Lights out!
MATTHEWS: David, do they see it that way in the White House? If they lose the 13th, Jack Murtha`s district, it`s like losing, to me, Massachusetts with Scott Brown [...]
FINEMAN: If the Dems lose that district, they`re going to lose the House.
Had the Republicans taken the seat, the media would've undoubtedly double downed on their narrative of imminent Democratic doom. (Say that last sentence ten times in a row, really fast.) Instead, we get this from the AP:
But any attempt to read into the results a probable trend for the fall campaign was hazardous — particularly given Critz's victory over Republican Tim Burns to succeed Democrat Murtha in Congress.
Ah yes. We can't read anything into those results. The Democrat won after all!
Fortunately, the rest of the political media isn't so myopic. NBC's First Read:
In the only contest pitting a Democrat against a Republican, Mark Critz (D) defeated Tim Burns (R) in the special congressional election to replace the late Rep. Jack Murtha (D) in Pennsylvania. As we’ve pointed out, this isn’t a good sign for the GOP in its quest to take back the House in November. Why? Because this was a race that Republicans -- in this kind of political environment -- should have been able to win. Yes, Democrats outnumber Republicans in the district. And, yes, the Dem turnout in the competitive Sestak-vs.-Specter primary helped Critz (though the statewide Dem turnout wasn't overly impressive). But this was the only congressional district in the country that John Kerry won in ’04 but Obama lost in ’08, meaning that it was ripe for the picking. Remember, back in 1994, Republicans were the ones winning House special elections. But can this be ’94 all over again if the Democrats are the ones winning these things -- four straight this cycle (PA-12, NY-23, CA-10, NY-20) and seven since 2008 (IL-14, MS-1, LA-6).
For Democrats who've struggled to argue that the dynamics of 2010 are more complicated than an anti-Democratic revolt, that the right combination of message and muscle can still win -- this is the one they've been waiting for. The party and its allies poured energy into Critz's win, making 123,977 volunteer phone calls, knocking on 111,958 doors, deploying Bill Clinton and spending millions on ads, all in a district where President Obama's approval rating is in the 30 percent range. In an e-mail to Score, the DCCC's Jennifer Crider said there's more where that came from: "Critz won PA-12 with a message of creating jobs and stopping the outsourcing of American jobs. Republican Tim Burns lost by nationalizing his message and focusing almost exclusively on national leaders, rather than on the issues important to district. Democrats will continue to make the 2010 elections about this choice between Democrats being for the middle class and Republicans being for Wall Street special interests."
Categories: Media, Politics Tags: 2010, Bill Clinton, Chris Matthews, chris matthews show, David, Democrat, district, FINEMAN, GREGORY, House, Howard, Howard Fineman, Jack Murtha, Jennifer Crider, John Kerry, John Murtha, Kerry, Mark Critz, Massachusetts, Matthews, Nancy, nancy pelosi, PA-12, pennsylvania, President Obama, Read, Rep. Jack Murtha, Scott Brown, Tim Burns, Wall Street
PA-12: Critz (D) wins
The Republican Tim Burns has conceded.
Democrat Mark Critz is an asshole Dem, and will be among the worst of the Blue Dogs. So why is it good that he won?
Because this was seen as a must-win for both parties. The (bullshit) CW was that if Critz lost, the Dems would lose Congress. This is, indeed, the only district in the entire country that Kerry won in 2004, and McCain won in 2008. In other words, the lowest of the low-hanging fruit, and a district that HATES the health care reform law.
None of that mattered. Dems held the seat easily despite an early and massive Burns polling advantage.
This is yet another sign tonight that Dems have righted their ship, and while things may not be fantastic for them, the once-expected GOP landslide will have a hard time materializing.
Had Burns won, we would've never heard the end of it
Update: From the comments, this is the sort of CW I was talking about:
"In some ways, PA-12 seems to be a must-win for Republicans. After all, if they can't win the only district in the country that voted for both John Kerry and John McCain, what does it say about their ability to win other GOP-tilting seats this fall?" said Amy Walters, editor-in-chief of National Journal's The Hotline.
Categories: Politics Tags: 2010, Amy Walters, blue dogs, country, Democrat, Dems, district, House, John Kerry, John McCain, Kerry, Mark Critz, massive burns, PA-12, pennsylvania, Republican, Tim Burns
Social Media: How the Campaigns Stack Up
The blogosphere truly became a force in 2004; ActBlue became a major online fundraising (and organizing) tool in 2006; Obama campaign's use of the internet for organizing gained widespread attention in 2008. Democrats clearly did better at campaigning, organizing, and fundraising online. Then in 2010, Scott Brown kicked Martha Coakley's ass across the entire internet. Suddenly the story became "can Democrats catch up online?"
That's a stupid question, because one race in which an effective candidate out-organizes a deeply flawed and inept candidate does not partywide dominance make. But it suggests we absolutely should be paying attention to how campaigns are doing at online organizing.
This essay marks the beginning of an occasional series examining just that. Today, I'm focusing on some races for open Senate seats, two Republican, two Democratic. I'm also focusing on Twitter and Facebook. There are many more races to cover and many more forms of online media to look at -- how many times have their YouTube videos been viewed? Are they engaging with the blogosphere? What are their online ad buys like? Online fundraising, texting...there's a wealth of media to check out. But Twitter and Facebook are public metrics that are readily comparable.
We'll expect candidates to have more Facebook fans than followers on Twitter, because there are many more people on Facebook. But advertising on Facebook can rack up large numbers of fans relatively quickly, so a case where a candidate's Facebook-to-Twitter ratio seems out of the ordinary may suggest that the campaign has been advertising heavily on Facebook. (Which may be a good idea, mind you.) Also worth noting, some Republican candidates (including Peter Schiff in today's group) have created splash pages on Facebook -- when you search for them and initially go to the page, instead of seeing a normal Facebook wall there's...a splash page -- big graphic, sign-up, etc. I haven't yet found any Democrats who are doing that.
So, without further ado, a basic look at the Senate races in Connecticut, Illinois, New Hampshire, and Ohio. In order to be able to compare across states, I've divided the number of followers a candidate has on each platform by the number of congressional districts in their state. And while I didn't look up numbers for every race on the same day (so some may be as much as a week old), the numbers for each candidate in a given race were compiled within minutes of each other.
Connecticut has five districts:
Democratic candidate (and current attorney general) Richard Blumenthal's Facebook page has 15,215 fans. That's 3,043 per district. His Twitter account, DickBlumenthal, has 645 followers (129 per district).
Blumenthal has three Republican opponents. Linda McMahon's Facebook page has 10,097 fans (2,019.4 per district). On Twitter, her LindaforSenate account has 5,386 followers (1,077.2 per district). Rob Simmons' Facebook page has 2,867 fans (573.4 per district), while his RobSimmons Twitter account has 2,065 followers (413 per district). Trailing in the polls but not on Facebook, Peter Schiff's Facebook page has 32,807 fans -- a whopping 6,561.4 per district. On Twitter, his SchiffforSenate account has 4,019 followers (803.8 per district). Schiff has obviously put some money into his Facebook page. As previously noted, a search for his page leads not to a traditional Facebook wall but to a splash page built into Facebook. And his extraordinary number of fans suggests that he's been doing advertising.
Verdict: Blumenthal holds his own on Facebook, but lags the Republicans on Twitter.
Illinois has 19 districts:
State Treasurer Alexi Giannoulias' Facebook page has 8,651 fans -- 455.3 per district. He has two Twitter accounts. Seemingly Giannoulias is his own account, with 1,018 followers (53.6 per district), while Alexi4Illinois is a campaign account used by staff, with 1,875 followers (98.7 per district).
Republican Rep. Mark Kirk's Facebook page has 10,555 fans (555.5 per district), while his Kirk4Senate Twitter account has 3,177 followers (167.2 per district).
Verdict: It is difficult to know how to weigh Giannoulias' followers on Twitter, given the two accounts -- but Kirk gets a clear victory, since he has more followers on Twitter than the two Giannoulias accounts combined. He also gets a solid, though not dominating win on Facebook.
New Hampshire has two districts:
Democratic Rep. Paul Hodes' Facebook page has 2,268 fans (1,134 per district). His PaulHodes Twitter account has 1,115 followers (557.5 per district).
Republican frontrunner (and former attorney general) Kelly Ayotte's Facebook page has 2,258 fans (1,129 per district). Her Ayotte2010 Twitter account has 860 followers (430 per district). Wealthy businessman Bill Binnie's Facebook page has 680 fans (340 per district). His Binnie2010 Twitter account has 435 followers (217.5 per district). And trailing the pack, Ovide Lamontagne's Facebook page has 957 fans (478.5 per district), while his Ovidein2010 Twitter account has 777 followers (388.5 per district).
Verdict: Hodes has a very narrow lead on Facebook and a wider one on Twitter.
Ohio has 18 districts:
Democratic Lieutenant Governor Lee Fisher's Facebook page has 4,048 fans (224.9 per district), while his FisherforOhio Twitter account has 1,200 followers (66.67 per district). By contrast, Republican Rob Portman's Facebook page has 11,147 fans (619.3 per district) and his RobPortman Twitter account has 1,855 followers (103.1 per district).
Verdict: Fisher trails Portman badly on both Twitter and Facebook.
Final thoughts: It's clear that Republicans don't own social media. It's a pretty even fight, by the numbers. But there's a lot more to be said, both about other media (as discussed above) and about how the campaigns are using these platforms to communicate and organize. Please chime in in the comments with observations about that. And I'd love to hear what kind of online ads you're seeing if you live in an area with a competitive race. Tell us in the comments, or email me at Laura (dot) DK (dot) Adinfo (at) gmail (dot) com. I'll start compiling impressions about that.
Categories: Politics Tags: account, Bill Binnie, Connecticut, CT-Sen, district, facebook, graphic sign, IL-Sen, Illinois, Kirk, Linda McMahon, Martha Coakley, New Hampshire, NH-Sen, OH-Sen, ohio, open senate, page, Peter Schiff, Rep. Mark Kirk, Rep. Paul Hodes, republican candidates, Richard Blumenthal, Rob Simmons, Scott Brown, senate seats, social media, Twitter
“Jack Bauer” Republicans, would-be war criminals for Congress
Via digby, a new low for the country as a whole, and the Republican party in particularly. The Daily Beast's Bejamin Sarlin has the story.
Two Iraq veterans who left the military after surviving charges of crimes against detainees are running credible campaigns for Congress. And far from minimizing the incidents, both candidates have put the accusations front and center in their campaigns, attracting rock-star adulation from conservatives nationwide in the process. But critics, including human-rights activists, veterans, and now even defeated primary opponents, warn that their records should disqualify them from office.
Last week, Ilario Pantano won the Republican nomination in North Carolina’s 7th District, setting up a challenge to incumbent Democrat Rep. Mike McIntyre in November. In 2001, immediately following the 9/11 terror attacks, Pantano, a veteran who had previously fought in the Gulf War, left his career as a successful producer and media consultant in his native Manhattan to rejoin the Marines and was eventually deployed to Iraq. In April 2004, Pantano killed two unarmed Iraqi detainees, twice unloading his gun into their bodies and firing between 50 and 60 shots in total. Afterward, he placed a sign over the corpses featuring the Marines' slogan "No Better Friend, No Worse Enemy" as a message to the local population....
Retired Lt. Col. Allen West, running in Florida’s 22nd District to replace Democratic Rep. Ron Klein ... West was forced to retire from the Army and fined $5,000 after he admitted to apprehending an Iraqi policeman he suspected of planning an ambush, watching as his troops beat him, and then firing a gunshot by the Iraqi’s head in order to scare him into divulging information. West said the decision saved lives by preventing an ambush. But no plot was ever discovered and the policeman in question later told The New York Times that he had no knowledge of any attacks.
Such an incident might be a source of shame for some officers. But not for West, who has developed a superstar following among Republicans by portraying himself as a real-life Jack Bauer.
These guys are actually centering their campaigns around these incidents, and getting broad support from Republicans--including, who else but Sarah Palin, for doing so. What digby says: "They're not even pretending to be decent anymore."
Categories: Politics Tags: 2010, Digby, district, florida, human rights activists, incumbent democrat, Iraq, Jack Bauer, Lt. Col. Allen West, Manhattan, North Carolina, Pantano, policeman, Rep. Mike McIntyre, Rep. Ron Klein, republican nomination, republicans, Ron Klein, rsquo, sarah palin, the Gulf, torture