Politics

FL-Sen: Curtains for Crist (as a Republican)

Every once in a while, I’m right about something. Me, on July 7, 2009:

With 14 months until the Florida Republican Senate primary in 2010, popular Gov. Charlie Crist is riding high in the polls against his challenger, former state House Speaker Marco Rubio. But the current numbers are deceiving, and as counterintuitive as it might seem, Crist is likely the underdog.

You see, Crist is an anachronism in the modern GOP. He’s a moderate with a streak of social liberalism, which places him at odds with the conservative voters who will dominate the closed primary’s electorate. Crist’s strong support among Democrats and independents won’t help him with party regulars, while his centrist record will provide ample fodder for Rubio and his allies to decimate the governor’s standing with the right-wing base [...]

This is a war of attrition, and 14 months will be more than enough for the combined might of the conservative movement to grind Crist down. Republican primary voters aren’t interested in moderation or practicality, and Crist can’t deliver the ideological purity they demand. The poll numbers should tighten by the first quarter of 2010, and Crist seems likely to face the same dilemma that Sen. Arlen Specter (Pa.) wrestled with a short while ago — can he remain a Republican and win a primary?

Note, this was crazy talk when I wrote it last summer. As late as October 2009, Crist was safely above the 50 percent mark. But the dynamics of the race were obvious, they just needed to play out.

Still, it turns out I wasn’t 100 percent right. I expected tied poll numbers at this stage of the game, not this:

Rubio now leads Crist 60-28, including a staggering 71-17 lead with conservatives. Crist has a 49-36 advantage with party moderates, but they account for just 31% of likely primary voters compared to 65% who describe themselves as conservative.

Rubio is benefiting from a widely held sentiment among Florida GOP voters that Congressional Republicans are too liberal and that Crist would add to the problem. 41% of them think that the party leadership in Washington is too liberal, and with those folks Rubio holds an 83-10 lead. 50% think that Crist himself is too liberal and with those voters Rubio’s advantage expands even wider to 90-5.

Nate Silver offers four options for Crist, and determines that going indie is his best option. But Nate inexplicably leaves off Crist’s most obvious option: become a Democrat.

Our general election Senate numbers, which we’ll release tomorrow, find that Crist is a good deal more popular with Democrats now than he is with Republicans. His path to any future electoral victory may come as an independent or perhaps even as a Democrat.

I’ve written it before, I’ll write it again: there are only two candidates who can win that Senate seat in November — Rubio and Crist. And Crist won’t do it as a Republican.  As a Democrat, he has a fighting chance.


Politics

AR-Sen: Look who is running scared

No one could’ve predicted that a primary challenge would turn Blanche Lincoln into a better Democrat.

A moderate Democrat who had vowed to oppose any effort by party leaders to push a health care bill through the Senate with a simple majority vote is rethinking her position.

Sen. Blanche Lincoln said Tuesday that she wants to see what is in the companion bill before deciding.

Of course, she is so clueless, she already ran a primary ad bragging about shafting Democrats on the public option and cap and trade. It looks like she’s starting to realize that to win a Democratic primary, she might have to start acting like one.

Too late, Blanche.

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Politics

Political dictionary

Steve Benen:

“Obstructionism,” for example, only refers to Democratic minorities opposing Republican proposals.

“Tyranny” is found when an elected Democratic majority passes legislation that Republicans don’t like.

“Reconciliation” describes a Senate process that Republicans are allowed to use to overcome Democratic “obstructionism.”

“Terrorism” refers to acts of political violence committed by people who aren’t white guys.

“Bipartisanship” is found when Democrats agree to pass Republican legislation.

“Big government” describes a dangerous phenomenon to be avoided, except in cases relating to reproductive rights or gays.

“Treason” refers to Democrats criticizing a Republican administration during a war.

“Patriotism” refers to Republicans criticizing a Democratic administration during a war.

“Fiscal responsibility” is a national priority related to keeping our deficit in check, which only applies when Republicans are in the minority.

“Parliamentarian” is a seemingly independent official on the Hill who Senate Republicans are allowed to fire when the GOP disapproves of his/her rulings.

“Government-run health care” doesn’t refer to popular government-run health care programs like Medicare.

“The heartland” is the most wonderful place in America, even if no conservative pundit would be caught dead living there.

“Serving your country” is honorable if you’re a Republican, but a subject of derision when Democrats do it.

Your turn.


World

Delahunt Retiring: Massachusetts Democrat Rep. William Delahunt Not Running For Re-Election

WASHINGTON — Massachusetts Rep. William Delahunt has decided not to run for re-election.

The seven-term Democrat told the Boston Globe that his decision had nothing to do with politics. He said he had been considering leaving for severa…

Politics

House Republicans Support Restraint and Seclusion For Children

When 30 Senate Republicans voted to protect corporate-sponsored rape, it seemed that we had finally reached the nadir of the Party of No. But yesterday, House Republicans gave their senate cohorts a run for their scum-sucking money when they refused to support H.R. 4247, the Preventing Harmful Restraint and Seclusion in Schools Act.

The bill passed, but 153 House Republicans, so intent on saying no to any legislation introduced by a Democrat, couldn’t bring themselves to agree that children in school shouldn’t be tied up, drugged, or isolated in order to discipline them.

This should serve as a reminder to anyone humming the Kumbaya, bipartisan song … you cannot deal in any meaningful way with people who are hell-bent on saying no to anything and everything to further their political aims.


Politics

Polling and Political Wrap-Up, 3/3/10

As seems to be the norm lately, a very busy couple of days in the world of political campaigns and political polling. Let’s get right to it….

THE U.S. SENATE

KS-Sen: Either Tiahrt or Moran Favored to Hold Seat for GOP
This will surprise absolutely no one, but Democrats are the longest of longshots to pick up the Senate seat coming open in the Sunflower State, according to new numbers from Rasmussen. Ras polls both Congressman Todd Tiahrt and Congressman Jerry Moran against “Generic Democrat”, and ole G.D. gets beat by a roughly 2-to-1 against either of them. Moran does incrementally better (51-26) than does Tiahrt (50-29).

NY-Sen: Gillibrand Leads All Republicans, According to Ras
With each passing day, the reason for Harold Ford Jr’s decision to exit the New York Senate race becomes more apparent. Not only were his own political fortunes circling the drain, but his likely Democratic rival, Senator Kirsten Gillibrand, is enjoying a bit of a political surge of her own. According to the newest numbers from Rasmussen, Gillibrand leads all GOP comers, including the still-undecided George Pataki, who Gillibrand has trailed in a number of trial heats. She now edges the former Gov by a pair (44-42), and also easily led NY Daily News publisher Mort Zuckerman by double digits (47-36). Interestingly, Ras chose not to poll Bruce Blakeman, who differs from the two tested Republicans in one quirky way–he’s actually running. Zuckerman, for his part, seemed to slam the door on a potential bid today.

These numbers by the way, track reasonably closely to a Marist Poll released yesterday, which had Gillibrand tight with Pataki (they gave Pataki a 48-45 lead) while blasting either Zuckerman or Blakeman (Marist had the Senator leading Blakeman 58-28). They also had the other NY Democratic Senator, Chuck Schumer, destroying CNBC analyst Lawrence Kudlow (69-24).

ND-Sen: Democrats Lose Top Recruit For Open Senate Seat
The odds were pretty darned long in any event, and in the final analysis, that might explain why former state Attorney General Heidi Heitkamp made the call not to run for the U.S. Senate this year. The seat, left open by the January retirement of longtime incumbent Byron Dorgan, encouraged GOP Governor John Hoeven to get into the race. Democrats are likely to rely either on state legislator Tracy Potter or young businesswoman Kristin Hedger (who has run statewide, and came close to a victory, despite being just 29 years of age).

THE U.S. HOUSE

OK-02: Boren Looks Safe In Uber-Red Oklahoma District
Dan Boren, the conservative Dem who has been representing the very red 2nd district in Oklahoma since 2004, looks safe for a fourth term, according to a new poll by the crew at PPP. Boren has leads ranging from 16-27 points over a quartet of little known Republican rivals, while an Independent candidate logs in the high single digits.

THE GUBERNATORIAL RACES

GA-Gov: Peach State A Possible Dem Pickup?
PPP takes an early look at the Georgia Governor’s race, and finds something that has been thus far elusive in the 2010 campaign cycle, a better-than-expected result for a Democrat. The Democrat is a familiar face to Georgia voters: former Governor Roy Barnes, who served the state from 1999-2003. Barnes has small leads over a trio of GOP challengers in the race to replace term-limited GOP Gov. Sonny Perdue. Barnes leads John Oxendine by a single point (40-39), while Karen Handel and Nathan Deal trail the former Democratic Governor by five points each. Worth noting: Ras also polled this race recently, and has all three GOPers in the lead.

NY-Gov: Cuomo Looks To Make Empire State A Democratic Hold
Now unencumbered by a complicated primary with an embattled Democratic incumbent, Andrew Cuomo is apparently cruising in his bid to be New York’s next governor. So says Rasmussen, which gives the Democrat a twenty-five point (55-30) edge over likely GOP nominee Rick Lazio. They also test Buffalo developer Carl Paladino, who might run as a GOPer or a Teabagger. As the GOP nominee, he gets squashed by Cuomo (56-27). If they tag-team Cuomo, Cuomo still wins easily, though his vote share slips to 50%, with Lazio down to 19% and Paladino (as an Independent) down to 15%.

OK-Gov: Oklahoma Looks Like A GOP Flip, According to Rasmussen
Not that this will be a surprise to…well…just about anyone, but after eight years with Democrat Brad Henry at the helm, it looks like ruby-red Oklahoma (among the medallists in the “worst state for Obama” category) will go Republican in 2010, according to new numbers from Rasmussen. Congresswoman Mary Fallin has double digit leads over either Democratic Lt. Governor Jari Askins (51-37) or state Attorney General Drew Edmondson (51-36). The only hope for Dems (and this is even a bit of a stretch) is if somehow state legislator Randy Brogdon wins the GOP nod–the Dems are a toss-up against him.

PA-Gov: Q Poll–Corbett Leads Dems, But Margin Thinning
Quinnipiac is back in the Keystone State, and they have some interesting numbers in the gubernatorial race. While GOP state Attorney General Tom Corbett continues to lead in both the primary and general elections, his numbers have softened noticeably. In the primary, he crushes state legislator Sam Rohrer, but still only gets 43% of Republicans to commit to him (43-5). Meanwhile, in the general election, his lead over Dan Onorato has been cut almost in half, with Corbett now up by just ten points (42-32). This comes on the heels of yesterday’s release, which had Democratic Senator Arlen Specter leading Republican Pat Toomey, a reversal of most recent polling on the race.

RI-Gov: Rasmussen Confirms Chafee Lead in Indie Bid
Rasmussen, as always, is a little bearish on Democratic chances here, but their new poll out of the state of Rhode Island basically tracks with other polls. They have former GOP Senator Lincoln Chafee, now running as an Independent candidate, with leads over either major Democrat running for the office. Against treasurer Frank Caprio, Chafee leads 37-27, with Republican John Robataille at 19%. With state Attorney General Patrick Lynch in the mix, Chafee’s lead stretches to 38-24, with Robataille at 22%.


Politics

Ford’s out, won’t challenge Gillibrand in New York

By Michael J.W. Stickings”Independent” Democrat Harold Ford Jr. has decided not to challenge New York Sen. Kirsten Gillibrand. As he writes in an op-ed in today’s Times:I’ve examined this race in every possible way, and I keep returning to the same fun…

Politics

AR-Sen: Lincoln’s Democratic principles

A reminder of what Blanche Lincoln (D-AR) had to say ahead of Bill Halter’s announcement that there would actually be a Democrat in Arkansas’ Democratic primary race:

“Are we willing as Democrats to also push back on our own party and look for that common ground that we need to work with Republicans?” Lincoln asked.  [...]

Lincoln, who said she’s not worried about whether Halter runs, said she believes she can live up to the Democratic Party’s principles while trying to work with both parties.

“It’s important to note that I’m not the only Democrat in those positions,” Lincoln said. “There are other moderates, and there are moderate Republicans.”

Blanche Lincoln’s Democratic principles: act like a Republican and screw over her own party.

Goal Thermometer

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Politics

Lincoln’s Contempt for Working Families

One of the many, many reasons that it’s so important to support Bill Halter’s populist primary against Blanche Lincoln is the sheer contempt with which Lincoln has treated working families and their labor unions.  

After all, it was Lincoln’s decision to join the Republican filibuster of the Employee Free Choice Act — at a time when there were 60 Democrats in the Senate, and even Nelson and Pryor had refused to obstruct the bill — which essentially spelled the end of the hope for meaningful labor law reform. As we wrote at the time,

It’s hard to interpret the statement that she “cannot support and will not support moving it forward” as anything other than a pledge to not just oppose the bill, but to throw her lot in with the obstructionist Republican effort to prevent Employee Free Choice from ever getting a fair vote on the Senate floor. It’s one thing to vote “no” on Free Choice, a bill supported by the President, and a reform sorely needed to even the playing field for working Americans after 20 years of Reagan and the Bushes — it’s another entirely to join the Republicans in thwarting a democratic vote on the measure. That’s inexcusable.

But given the fanatical opposition of the corporate overclass to empowering workers, and given Wal-Mart’s particular hatred on unions, it should be little surprise that Lincoln — a co-sponsor of last week’s estate tax giveaway designed to pamper Walton family heirs — would betray her party and American workers when the chips were down.

Goal ThermometerBut merely killing labor law reform wasn’t enough for Lincoln.  Last summer, Lincoln’s chief of staff — and campaign manager! — spoke to an Arkansas Democratic club as the “counterpoint” in a discussion about the Employee Free Choice Act.  Not only was Lincoln’s team spiking reform by joining the McConnell/DeMint filibuster — they were actively lobbying against the bill, like an arm of the Chamber of Commerce.  

…which isn’t really surprising, given that most of Lincoln’s subsequent maneuverings concerning labor rights have come straight out of the Chamber’s lobbying handbook. Lincoln opposed Senator Jeff Merkley’s important amendment to HCR which would have required construction contractors with five or more employees to carry their fair share of the nation’s health care burden. Given another chance to stand up for decent working conditions for everyday Americans, Lincoln fell in behind the non-union construction lobbyists, who represent some of the most exploitative employers in the nation. And Lincoln recently went so far as to join the Republican filibuster of Craig Becker, a brilliant and well-respected labor lawyer who was one of President Obama’s nominees to the National Labor Relations Board. What kind of Democrat filibusters a nominee put forward by a Democratic President?

It’s no wonder that the Chamber is running ads in Arkansas papers thanking Blanche Lincoln for all the water she’s carried on the behalf of the worst employers in America.  She’s their favorite Democrat — a Democrat who truly has contempt for the right to organize and win a fair deal on the job.  And that’s just one of the reasons — but for me, at least, the biggest reason — why it’s so important that we back Bill Halter, a populist Democrat who has pledged to stand with working Arkansas families against the 21st Century robber barons. We’ve got to show any “Democrat” in the Lincoln vein that spitting in the face of working Americans has consequences.  


Politics

AR-Sen: Lincoln reaction: Punch the hippies

Blanche Lincoln responds to Halter’s candidacy:

“I’m excited about today and I’m excited to be an Arkansas Democrat. I’ll file for re-election and continue fighting for Arkansas every day here at home and in the United States Senate. I know that I am the target of both political extremes but that’s what makes this campaign so important to all of us. This Senate seat belongs to Arkansas, not to outside groups that are angry I don’t answer to them.”

Yup. Extremists like the League of Conservation Voters. Extremists like the Democratic Party (and the Obama Administration).

And extremists like you.

Goal Thermometer

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p.s. If Lincoln was answering to the voters of Arkansas, she wouldn’t be polling in the 30s.


Politics

OH-06/OH-17: Traficant Announces Independent Congressional Bid

Don’t call it a comeback:

Former Democratic Rep. James Traficant, who in September was released from a federal prison after serving seven years on a bribery and racketeering conviction, told CNN Tuesday he will launch an independent bid to return to Congress.

“I will be running for congress…as an independent,” Traficant told CNN’s Kyra Philips. “I have been a Democrat all my life, and quite frankly I am disgusted with both parties.”

One thing Traficant did not reveal in the quasi-launch of his candidacy this morning was the district in which he intends to run. The two most likely places for him to land would be in the Ohio 6th (currently represented by Democrat Charlie Wilson) or his old district, the Youngstown-based 17th district.

The current incumbent in the 17th, Democrat Tim Ryan, has had the unique experience of having Traficant as an Independent challenger. Recall that in 2002, Traficant was expelled from the House. Undaunted, he ran as an Independent in the Fall, losing badly to Ryan and garnering just 15% of the vote.

Conventional wisdom would probably suggest that a Traficant Indie candidacy, based on his previous tenure in Congress as a Democrat, would siphon votes from either Ryan or Wilson (depending on where he lands). However, as a scathing editorial in the Youngstown Vindicator pointed out of the weekend, Traficant has also been cuddling up to the Teabagger contingent since his release from prison (there is a YouTube online of him speaking at a Tea Party rally less than two weeks after his release). This might imply that he could draw Republican and anti-Dem Independent voters.

Of course, given his fall from grace and his seven years in prison, it is also at least equally likely that his impact on the election cycle (outside of the entertainment value of his candidacy, of course) will be negligible.


Politics

Up or down vote for HCR (or else)

By CreatureThat’s the message coming out of the White House this morning. It’s a message that should be repeated ad nauseum by every Democrat that finds themselves in front of a microphone from now until the bill passes. The White House also called a…

Politics

Whiskey is for drinking, water is for fighting over

So said Mark Twain. And it’s still true.
Democrats vs Democrat in California’s water wars

World

DSCC Chair Menendez Signs Public Option Letter

Another prominent Senate Democrat has now endorsed an idea to pass a public option for insurance coverage using reconciliation.

Democratic Senatorial Campaign Committee Chairman Robert Menendez (D-N.J.) became the 20th Senator to sign a lett…

World

Bayh Senate Seat: Indiana Democrats Have ‘No Obvious Replacement’

INDIANAPOLIS — Indiana Democrats stunned by Sen. Evan Bayh’s decision not to seek a third term face the daunting task of finding a candidate for the November ballot to fill the shoes of the man who’s long been the Republican-leaning stat…

Politics

How Radical is Reconciliation Fix/Public Option Idea?

It’s so radical Dianne Feinstein signed on to it.

The California Democrat joins a list of mostly progressive members to offer her late-stage support for the government run plan. In a letter to Reid on Tuesday a quartet of Democrats penned a letter to Reid urging him to pass the proposal through parliamentary procedures that would allow it a simple up-or-down vote….

In putting her name among the signatories Feinstein expands the pool of senators pushing for a public plan beyond the progressive wing and those lawmakers facing primary challenges in the upcoming elections. The California Democrat has been a supporter of the proposal from the onset, though not a particularly vocal one. The recent news that the largest insurer in her home state, Anthem Blue Cross, was raising premiums on its customers by as much as 39 percent seems to have played a significant role in this current decision.

That brings the total to eleven, and you can probably expect Boxer to join her soon. Those currently on board are Jeff Merkley (D-Ore.), Sherrod Brown (D-Ohio), Michael Bennet (D-Col.), Kirsten Gillibrand (D-N.Y.), Bernie Sanders (I-VT), Al Franken (D-Minn.), Pat Leahy (D-VT), John Kerry (D-Mass.), and Sheldon Whitehouse (D-RI).


World

Espada Photobomb: Protestor Embarrasses State Sen. Pedro Espada At Press Conference

A well-crafted press conference featuring State Sen. Pedro Espada, a Bronx Democrat, nearly was upended by opponents representing tenant rights groups.

Espada was flanked by nearly a hundred people on the steps of City Hall Wednesday as he an…

World

Evan Bayh For President? Senator May Be Eyeing White House Run

It took Evan Bayh, the son of a legendary Senator from Indiana, two terms of his own to learn that the conservative Democrat was living a lie as a legislator. “I’m an executive at heart,” Bayh told a crowd gathered to hear the reasoning behind…

World

Dianne Feinstein’s Hand Notes From 1990 Highlighted By Fox News (VIDEO)

Leave it to the crew at Fox & Friends to dig up 20-year-old video of a Democrat writing notes on her hand while covering Sarah Palin’s recent hand-note imbroglio.

In the video below (fast-forward to 1:40), Sen. Dianne Feinstein (D-Calif.) is…

Politics

Charles Wilson (1933-2010)

By Michael J.W. StickingsRep. Charlie Wilson, a Democrat who served Texas’s Second District from 1973 to 1996, has died at the age of 76.Give him some credit, I suppose, for being a driving force behind Operation Cyclone, the covert and ultimately succ…

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