Billionaire GOP gubernatorial candidate Meg Whitman has invested her vast wealth in firms that sought to profit from the country’s credit crisis, in venture capital and hedge funds open only to the wealthy, and in oil, gas, healthcare and othe…
Politics
Democrats who suck: Looking back at ‘04
By Michael J.W. StickingsJon Chait looks back at the 2004 Democratic presidential field and, well, finds it wanting: Just how awful was the 2004 Democratic primary field? Go through the list, and try to imagine any of these men as a presidential nomine…
Politics
CA-Gov: Poizner Was For Government-Funded Abortions Before He Was Against Them
Republican candidate for California governor Steve Poizner had a 100 percent rating from Planned Parenthood when he ran, unsuccessfully, for state assembly in 2004. He considered himself pro-choice, he supported Roe v. Wade, and he supported government funding of abortion for low-income women.
But now?
An e-mail he sent out Friday said, “Steve Poizner is the only Republican candidate for governor who is against taxpayer-funded abortions.”
In another release, Poizner said he backed a proposed ballot initiative that would require parents to be notified before a minor’s abortion. Poizner quoted a supporter of the measure praising him for taking “a clear stand on issues that matter to social conservatives.”
Why the flip-flop? Because now Poizner is trying to prove he’s the most conservative conservative in the race for governor.
[He] has said many times that he wants to drive the number of abortions down to zero. He realizes that one important step to accomplish this goal in California is to end taxpayer-funding of abortions.
Yeah. Because everyone knows the best way to reduce abortions is to stick it to poor women.
Politics
Corporate lobbyist fundraising e-mail: Support Pat Toomey’s fight against the “populist” agenda
By way of an e-mail forwarded to me by a Democratic operative in Washington, DC, here’s a glimpse inside Pennsylvania GOP U.S. Senate candidate Pat Toomey’s fundraising machine: an e-mail from one Washington lobbyist to other Washington lobbyists urging them to support Toomey’s campaign because he’s “pro-business” (read: pro-big business) and fighting against the “populist” agenda of his opponents.
(Note that I’ve redacted the e-mail addresses, phone numbers, and other personally identifiable information in this screenshot.)
Given that the e-mail reveals Toomey’s corporate backers support him because he’s “pro-business” and fighting against a “populist” agenda, you can bet that Toomey’s campaign wishes it had not been released to the public. I wonder how it’s going to play with tea partiers who think they’re supporting a populist Senate candidate who stands up to big business as well as big government?
To give you an idea of how much money is at stake: there were 119 recipients of this email. If each recipient made the suggested donation of $2,400, Toomey would raise $285,000 tomorrow — and that doesn’t include the potential of corporate PAC contributions at $5,000 apiece.
World
David Bromwich: Wall Street’s Obama Investment
The connection between a politician and the financial interests that secure him are deeper than mere utility or selfish purpose. And in the case of Barack Obama, bankers are not just in his pockets, they are in his heart.
Politics
Polling and Political Wrap-Up, 2/19/10
There aren’t many electoral bombshells in the queue on this Friday evening, but there is an ample amount of headlines, including some new data in races that we haven’t seen a lot of numbers on thus far in the cycle (Vermont Governor’s race, anyone?)…
THE U.S. SENATE
IA-Sen: R2K Poll Has Grassley Ahead, But Not In Landslide
It is hard to define a poll where the incumbent Republican has a 21-point lead as a surprise, but given the electoral history for longtime Senator Chuck Grassley, this has to be defined as closer than normal. Grassley has a 56-35 lead over Democrat Roxanne Conlin, according to a new poll conducted on behalf of KCCI-TV by Research 2000 (who also polls for Daily Kos). Fifty-six percent would seem reasonably safe (and it probably is), but it is worth noting that Grassley has not been held beneath 60% since his maiden run for the Senate in 1980 (where he won with 54% of the vote).
IN-Sen: New Post-Bayh Rasmussen Poll Borders on Self-Parody
Rarely does the Wrap offer a caveat to public polling. After all, these are not polls conducted for a campaign or a party. This new data from Rasmussen, however, is teetering dangerously close to requiring its own caveat. Rasmussen claims that any of the three leading GOPers in the field, including virtual unknown Marlin Stutzman, would lead Democrat Brad Ellsworth by double digits.
Far be it from me to cast aspersions, but it is hard to fathom that former GOP Congressman John Hostettler, who lost to Ellsworth by 24 points in their Congressional battle in 2006, is actually up by nineteen over Ellsworth statewide (46-27). Indeed, if these two gentlemen are the nominees, and Hostettler wins by even half that margin, I will donate $100 to the RNC the very next day.
KY-Sen: Mongiardo Claims Large Primary Lead in Internal Poll
Dan Mongiardo, Kentucky’s Lt. Governor, released some internal polling in his hotly contested primary against state Attorney General Jack Conway. Not surprisingly, Mongiardo does quite well in his team’s own assessment of the race–the poll says Mongiardo has an 18-point edge (43-25) over Conway. The poll is a little dusty (two weeks old), and was conducted by Garin-Hart-Yang on behalf of Mongiardo.
NC-Sen: Surprises on Both Sides In Tar Heel Senate Primaries
Hometown pollsters PPP, which is based in North Carolina, becomes one of the first polling firms (if not the first) to take a look at the primary elections for the U.S. Senate in the Tar Heel State. The results on both sides will be bound to raise eyebrows. On the Democratic side, Elaine Marshall has a 28-12 lead over Cal Cunningham, with Kenneth Lewis back at 5%. Cunningham does pretty well to be in double digits, despite not having the name recognition that comes with statewide office. The real shocker, though, is on the GOP side, where Richard Burr seems to be getting caught up in a little anti-incumbent moodiness, as well. He polls at just 55% in the GOP primary, which is incredibly weak for a guy with virtually no competition (an unknown primary opponent lies at 10%).
OH-Sen: DSCC Takes Playful, And Effective, Stab at Portman
With wealthy car magnate Tom Ganley now out of the running in Ohio, it looks like a lock that former Congressman and Bush official Rob Portman will be the Republican nominee for the U.S. Senate seat currently occupied by the retiring George Voinovich. The campaign arm for Senate Democrats, the DSCC, wasted little time making him feel welcome, rolling out an homage to the children’s icon Mr. Rogers. The site is called Mister Portman’s “Make Believe Neighborhood”, which is helpfully located on the corner of K Street and Wall Street. Clever, and a solid punch to the weak spot of Portman, who can only charitably be described as an “insider” candidate. Democrats still have to sort out their own nomination, of course, with Lt. Governor Lee Fisher and Secretary of State Jennifer Brunner leading the way.
PA-Sen: Multiple Revelations In the Sestak-Specter Primary Fight
With recent polling putting him in the lead, Senator Arlen Specter seems to be taking the frontrunner’s approach to his competitive Senate primary with Joe Sestak. Team Sestak is pointing out that Specter is ducking debates with Sestak. This is a charge that, no doubt, emanates from Specter’s decision to forgo a proposed debate between the two on NBC’s flagship Sunday program Meet the Press. In a clever gambit, Team Sestak fired off a press release on Thursday inviting likely GOP nominee Patrick Toomey to debate Sestak in Specter’s place, arguing that “Arlen Specter and Pat Toomey’s policies are interchangeable. Debating Pat would be just like debating Arlen Specter.” Finally, Sestak made some headlines away from the debating front, as well, alleging that the White House tried to get Sestak out of the primary by offering him an alternative in the form of a federal gig. The White House denies the report.
WI-Sen: Ras Says Feingold Leads GOP Field, Under 50%
Last month, it was noted here on the Wrap that it was curious to see Rasmussen polling the Wisconsin Senate race by testing only Tommy Thompson (who seemed unlikely to run) and excluding a few declared Republicans, mostly notably millionaire businessman Terrence Wall. This month, Rasmussen addressed this by polling some of the alternatives to Thompson. Against Wall, Feingold leads by eight (47-39). Against lesser-known Republican Dave Westlake, Feingold stretches the lead to ten points (47-37).
Speaking of Thompson, Rasmussen’s recruiting effort via polling appears to be paying them some dividends, as Tommy Thompson this afternoon told The Hill that he was not ruling out a Senate bid.
THE U.S. HOUSE
DE-AL: GOP Suffers Recruiting Failure in GOP-Held Open Seat
It’s not a headline that we have seen often in the past month or so, but Republicans suffered a disappointment when wealthy businessman Tony Wedo, who was at the top of their wish list to replace longtime GOP Congressman Mike Castle, decided not to run for Congress. The GOP is having a devil of a time finding a candidate to challenge former Lt. Governor John Carney, who has been the Democratic standard-bearer for months.
FL-05: GOP Retirement Speculation All For Naught
For most of the day, it appeared as if yet another Republican member of Congress was headed for the exits. Speculation ran rampant throughout the day that GOP Congresswoman Ginny Brown-Waite would announce her retirement at a party function in Hernando, Florida. This was based on Brown-Waite teasing a “major announcement” at the function. Instead, the “major announcement” wound up being her engagement. In terms of the political balance of power, even a Brown-Waite retirement would not have amounted to much–the district is not overwhelmingly Republican, but has enough of a lean (57-43 McCain in 2008) to probably put it out of Democratic reach.
FL-24: Undeclared GOP Candidate Creates Quandary for National GOP
A whale of an interesting dynamic is developing in central Florida, where Republicans have been vexed by their ability to attract opposition to potentially vulnerable freshman Democrat Suzanne Kosmas. Early GOP recruits like Karen Diebel have proven to be busts, and the GOP is waiting with anticipation to see if wealthy businessman Craig Miller, the former CEO of Ruth’s Chris Steak House, will get in. The dilemma for the GOP is this: the DCCC has smartly fired off a preemptive strike at Miller, looking at both personal and business controversies. The NRCC is faced with a tough choice: if they do nothing, their dream candidate might be damaged beyond legitimate use by the time he finally declares. If the NRCC begins to buttress Miller, however, it will raise serious allegations that the party is taking sides in a contested primary, a charge that could raise teabagger ire.
PA-12: Leading Dem Demurs From Bid As Special Elex Now Official
With the date of the special election to replace the late Congressman John Murtha now officially set to coincide with the state primary on May 18th, one of the leading Democratic prospects made the surprise call not to run. State Senator John Wozniak, a longtime ally of the late Congressman, decided not to run for Congress. This could mean, of course, that Democratic efforts to recruit Murtha’s widow into the race are likely to be successful.
SD-AL: Two Republicans Add Name To Growing GOP Field
Perhaps smelling blood in reddish-tinted territory, a pair of potentially prominent Republicans added their names to the growing roster of GOP talent challenging Democratic Rep. Stephanie Herseth-Sandlin’s re-election bid. State legislator Kristi Noem, who is in the GOP leadership at the state House of Representatives, was joined by Steve Hickey, who was the founding pastor of a church in Sioux Falls. The presumptive front-runner for the GOP, up until this point, was SD Secretary of State Chris Nelson.
THE GUBERNATORIAL RACES
CA-Gov: Goddard Sees Poll With Landslide GOP Primary
This one is not necessarily a surprise, but it is as one-sided as the data on the GOP gubernatorial primary in California has been. According to Taegan Goddard and his always readable Political Wire, a prominent GOP pollster has looked at the race, and has Meg Whitman staked to an enormous 39 point lead (55-16) over state Insurance Commissioner Steve Poizner. Whitman has had a lead here for quite some time, but she has been saturating the airwaves during the Olympics, and that might explain the bump in her numbers.
IA-Gov: R2K/KCCI Poll Confirms Culver Troubles With Branstad
Less than a week after the respected Des Moines Register poll showed incumbent Democratic Governor Chet Culver down twenty points to former GOP Governor Terry Branstad in a 2010 clash, Research 2000/KCCI more or less confirmed the gap. Branstad enjoys a sixteen-point edge over Culver (54-38), according to the poll. If there is a bright spot for Culver, it could come if Branstad gets knocked off in the GOP primary. The other three leading GOPers (Bob Vander Platts, Chris Rants, and Rod Roberts) all trail the incumbent, with margins ranging from 3-22 points.
OR-Gov: Dems Hold Narrow Leads, According to New Ras Poll
Rasmussen, as we expected a few days ago when they dropped an Oregon Senate poll, has now followed up with a gubernatorial survey. They find that the Democratic candidates, former Governor John Kitzhaber and former Sec. of State Bill Bradbury, lead any prospective Republicans. Surprisingly, former state legislator John Lim (who got blasted in a statewide bid against Ron Wyden a dozen years ago) runs the strongest, only trailing Kitzhaber and Bradbury by 2-3 points. Former NBA basketball player Chris Dudley also polls fairly well, trailing Bradbury by three and Kitzhaber by six. Rasmussen, curiously, did not poll either primary, though both could prove to be competitive.
VT-Gov: Pollina Bid Could Be Dem Spoiler, According to R2K Poll
According to new numbers from Research 2000 and WCAX-TV, Republican Lt. Governor Brian Dubie holds his own when paired against leading Democrats for the office of Governor. Only Democratic Secretary of State Deb Markowitz leads Dubie, and even then, she only leads the Republican by two points (43-41). Dubie leads the other Democratic hopefuls by margins ranging from 5-18 points. What’s more–the Republican actually moves into the lead when perennial Progressive Party candidate Anthony Pollina is thrown into the mix. With Pollina in the calculations, Dubie moves in front with 37% of the vote, with Markowitz down to 35% of the vote and Pollina at 11%.
Politics
IN-Sen: Ellsworth Is In
It looks like less than a week after Senator Evan Bayh shocked the political community by abandoning his Senate seat, the Democratic Party landed their #1 recruit:
Indiana Rep. Brad Ellsworth has decided to seek the seat being vacated by Sen. Evan Bayh and will announce his intentions in a statement to be released shortly, according to a source briefed on the matter.
Ellsworth emerged as the favored candidate of the Democratic Senatorial Campaign Committee and the White House in the immediate aftermath of Bayh’s stunning decision that he would not seek a third term.
Brad Ellsworth, who served as the sheriff of Evansville’s Vanderburgh County for eight years prior to his election to Congress, picked off the long-vulnerable Republican incumbent (John Hostettler) in dramatic fashion in 2006, winning the 8th district with by an astounding 62-38 margin. He was subsequently re-elected with a dominant 65% of the vote two years later.
Despite being seen in most circles as a conservative Democrat, he’d almost certainly be an upgrade over Evan Bayh, whose departure from the Senate was marked by an unusual level of invective hurled at his own party, including the outrageous (and as has been demonstrated elsewhere) claim on The CBS Early Show that “If I could create one job in the private sector by helping to grow a business, that would be one more than Congress has created in the last six months.”
Ellsworth’s prospective candidacy is seen largely as a “done deal.” Democrats in-state, who have the power to make the nomination in the absence of their only filed candidate (Bayh), are likely to give the nod to Ellsworth. His move to a Senate bid does leave open the politically marginal 8th district, which went 51-47 for John McCain in 2008. The good news for Democrats is that a first-tier candidate has already announced his intentions, as state legislator Trent van Haaften confirmed to local media this morning that he would jump into the race.
World
Bayh Senate Seat: Indiana Democrats Have ‘No Obvious Replacement’
INDIANAPOLIS — Indiana Democrats stunned by Sen. Evan Bayh’s decision not to seek a third term face the daunting task of finding a candidate for the November ballot to fill the shoes of the man who’s long been the Republican-leaning stat…
World
Prince Frederic von Anhalt, Zsa Zsa’s Flamboyant Husband, Joins Race For Governor
SACRAMENTO, Calif. — Sporting alligator-skin cowboy boots and a bright red campaign cap, Prince Frederic von Anhalt, a flamboyant Los Angeles socialite and eighth husband of Zsa Zsa Gabor, officially joined the California governor’s race…
Politics
NV-Sen: Tea Party On
Sun columnist Jon Ralston is reporting that the Tea Party has qualified as a third party in Nevada and will have a candidate in the Senate race to battle for the seat held by Majority Leader Harry Reid.
The party has filed a Certificate of Existence but needs to get 1 percent of the electorate to vote for its candidate in November to permanently qualify, according to the report.
Ralston reported that Jon Ashjian will be the Tea Party’s U.S. Senate candidate on the November ballot. Ashjian still must declare his candidacy.
The natural question to ask is, are we supposed to call it the Tea Party party, or just the Tea party?
It remains to be seen how much of a difference this will make. But given Reid’s deservedly lousy polling, he needs all the good news he can get. He got one piece late last week in the news that Lt. Gov. Brian Krolicki won’t run, and anything that can drive a wedge on the right and siphon off a few votes that might otherwise go Republican counts in the good news category.
World
Indiana Dem: White House is conspiring to put Baron Hill in Bayh’s spot
Plus, outreach to the “Tea Baggers”.
World
Frank Dwyer: Starving on a Diet of Hope: Another Presidents’ Day Message
David Feige’s post, My President’s Day Message — An Open Letter to President Obama http://www.huffingtonpost.com/david-feige/my-presidents-day-message_b_463367.html, made me deeply sad, angry, and exhilarated, all at once….
Politics
Polling and Political Wrap-Up, 2/15/10
All in all, a reasonably quiet President’s Day in the world of electoral politics.
Well, except for that whole Evan Bayh thing…
THE U.S. SENATE
AZ-Sen: This is (Not) Good News For John McCain
It now looks like the anti-incumbent vote in the GOP Senate primary in the Grand Canyon State will be coalesced around one candidate. Longshot GOP contender Chris Simcox ended his bid, and endorsed challenger J.D. Hayworth. Simcox had some wingnut street cred as one of the heads of the Minuteman movement, but he was polling in the single digits. The Hill, meanwhile, reports that this one could get ugly quickly, as both McCain and Hayworth are pulling out the scandal “Greatest Hits” from the archives, with both Jack Abramoff and Charles Keating being reintroduced to the voters.
CA-Sen: Rasmussen Polls Cali, Finds GOP Competitive (No…Really)
The Ras-a-palooza continues unabated, with two new polls from the GOP-friendly pollster (that would prefer to now be known as a “media company“, thank you). One comes from the Golden State, where Rasmussen has all three major GOP candidates within five points of the incumbent, Democratic Senator Barbara Boxer. Tom Campbell and Carly Fiorina both lie four points behind Boxer, while more conservative option Chuck DeVore is down five.
IN-Sen: Do Dems Already Have Replacement For Bayh?
It did not take long for one of the bigger Democratic players in Indiana politics to make it clear that he was not slamming the door on a possible Senate bid. Congressman Brad Ellsworth, who has represented the 8th district since 2006, said that he would consider running to replace Bayh in the Senate. He promised to take a few days mulling it over. Ellsworth would be a viable statewide candidate, but he would open up a district that could be a tough hold for Dems in any year, but particularly in a down cycle.
LA-Sen: Slightly Dusty Rasmussen Poll Has Huge Vitter Lead
Accidentally missed this one in the flood of Rasmussen polling from last week: they have incumbent GOP Senator David Vitter well ahead of Democratic challenger Charlie Melancon in their latest poll in the Pelican State. Vitter leads Melancon, 57-33, according to the pollster, which is a six-point bump in the Republican’s direction since the last poll there by Rasmussen a few months back.
MD-Sen: Brief Mikulski Rumor Quickly Extinguished
In the wake of the rather surprising news that Senator Evan Bayh, on the cusp of Indiana’s filing deadline, was stepping aside, a brief boomlet of rumors (here is one source for it) began to spread that Senator Barbara Mikulski would also retire. This one, however, was quickly batted down, with Chris Cilizza, among others, claiming sources denying the rumor. Even if it were to occur, a Mikulski retirement would be less perilous than Bayh’s. Not only is Maryland more amenable territory politically, but there are several months for Democrats to find a suitable replacement. Mikulski is golden politically in the state, however, and should be safe as an incumbent.
WA-Sen: More Rasmussen Recruitment Via Polling in Murray Race
As they have done on a couple of occasions (see: Pence in Indiana and Thompson in Wisconsin), Rasmussen takes a shot at trying to lure a wavering Republican into a Senate race. In this case, it is two-time GOP gubernatorial contender Dino Rossi. Rasmussen has Rossi up two (48-46) on incumbent Democratic Senator Patty Murray. Against candidates that have actually indicated that they are running, however, Murray enjoys double-digit leads. Longtime state Senator Don Benton comes closest for the GOP, trailing Murray by twelve (50-38).
THE U.S. HOUSE
IL-11: Kinzinger Accused Of Exaggerating Military Record
A harsh accusation on a thorny subject. This is not exactly how one wants to kick off a general election campaign. Adam Kinzinger, the GOP nominee to challenge Democratic freshman Deborah Halvorson, had to change his website’s biography page after an Air Force officer writing on Facebook questioned whether Kinzinger was burnishing his own credentials. The officer in question, a Floridian named William Walter, accused Kinzinger of “using his military rank, position, and false AFSOC (Air Force Special Operations Command) credentials to try to ‘wow’ voters.” Not surprisingly, the GOP candidate fired back, along with the NRCC, claiming that Democrats were up to dirty tricks. Kinzinger did change the biography, but said he only did so in order to avoid further confusion about his military experience.
MA-10: Delahunt Rumors Refuse To Dissipate
On the heels of a GOP internal poll showing longtime Massachusetts Congressman Bill Delahunt vulnerable, rumors began to take flight about his potential exit from Congress, rumors given oxygen by Delahunt’s own reluctance to bat them down. Now, we have moved to stage two of the rumor mill–as Glenn Thrush at Politico is actually speculating about which Democrat is being groomed to take Delahunt’s spot (hint: the surname is a familiar one to Massaachusetts voters).
PA-12: Dominoes Start to Fall As Hafer Declares For Congress
A week after the passing of longtime SW Pennsylvania Congressman John Murtha, one of the first major players on the Democratic side has declared that she will seek the seat. Former state Treasurer Barbara Hafer announced her intentions today, but did add a critical caveat. She will stand down if Joyce Murtha, the widow of Congressman Murtha, elects to run for Congress.
THE GUBERNATORIAL RACES
IA-Gov: New DMR Poll Puts Culver Well Behind Branstad
There is good news and bad news for incumbent Democratic Governor Chet Culver. Well, okay, it is mostly bad news. According to a new poll for the Des Moines Register, Culver’s approval ratings have taken a beating, and he currently trails the presumptive GOP frontrunner, former Governor Terry Branstad, by twenty points (53-33). There is some semi-good news: he is either competitive with, or leading, the other three GOP first-tier candidates. And, as has been noted in past months, Branstad may well face the wrath of the teabaggers, as his primary challenges are mostly to his right.
TX-Gov: (Yet) Another Lone Star State Poll Confirms Recent Trends
Blum and Welprin, on behalf of a host of Texas media outlets (including the Dallas Morning News), is the latest outlet to poll the competitive gubernatorial race in Texas (PDF file). As with other pollsters, incumbent Governor Rick Perry has the edge, but it is below the 50% threshold to avoid a runoff. The poll has Perry out in front with 45%, with Sen. Kay Bailey Hutchison (29%) and Debra Medina (17%) trailing behind. The poll was conducted from February 2-10, and thus does not include virtually all of the birther/truther fun that Medina got herself tangled up in during the end of the week. Meanwhile, the American-Statesman polls the general election, and again finds likely Democratic nominee Bill White within single digits of either Perry (43-37) or Hutchison (42-34).
World
Indiana Senate: Democrats Face Tuesday Deadline To Get A Candidate On The Primary Ballot
The abrupt retirement of Evan Bayh (D-Ind.) from the Senate leaves Democrats with roughly 24 hours to get a replacement candidate on the primary ballot in Indiana.
According to forms on the Indiana Secretary of State’s website, in order to fi…
World
Jason Plummer: GOP Lt. Gov Nominee’s Family Cashed In With Lease To Party HQ
The head of the Illinois Republican Party said he is standing behind the party’s young lieutenant governor candidate in the wake of revelations that the candidate’s family benefitted financially from a lease at a Downstate party headquarters.
…
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