Posts Tagged ‘America’

Polling and political wrap, 5/19/10

So...I'm sorry there was no Wrap on Tuesday night.

I was busy catching up on TiVo'ed editions of "Iron Chef America".

Did anything happen of interest last night?

THE U.S. SENATE

CA-Sen: Campbell leads, but tenuously, in Senate primary poll
With a campaign that might be suffering from cash-flow woes (if the decision to pare back ad buys is any indicator), this is probably not the most comforting data for the campaign of Republican Senate aspirant Tom Campbell. A new poll by M4 Strategies for a small business PAC has Campbell leading Carly Fiorina by just five points (33-28). The problem for Campbell is that Chuck DeVore's campaign has simply not caught fire (he is a distant third at 15%). Fiorina will undoubtedly have more resources for the final three weeks than will Campbell, and that makes his five point lead an imperiled one, to say the least.

KY-Sen: Mongiardo reverses course, eschews recanvass
And...just like that...it is over. Dan Mongiardo, after releasing a statement this morning indicating that he would seek a recount, reversed course this evening and decided against seeking a recount of his narrow defeat at the hands of Democratic nominee Jack Conway. The initial decision seemed a curious one, given the relatively wide margin of victory (which has now grown to a shade over 5000 votes).

NC-Sen: Third-place Dem finisher endorses in June runoff
It had been the subject of speculation since the May 4th primary, but we now know who third-place Democratic primary finisher Kenneth Lewis prefers in the competitive runoff between NC Secretary of State Elaine Marshall and former state legislator Cal Cunningham. He endorsed Marshall today, which could well boost her fortunes (particularly with African-American voters). The runoff is still, amazingly, over a month away. Indeed, the Arkansas runoff between Senator Blanche Lincoln and Lt. Governor Bill Halter will occur before the Cunningham-Marshall runoff election in the Tar Heel State.

UT-Sen: Bennett to announce 2010 plans tomorrow
We will know, most likely by this time tomorrow, if Republican Senator Bob Bennett is going to seek to maintain his job via a write-in candidacy. Bennett lost the Republican nomination at the state convention a couple of weeks ago, and immediately refused to rule out a write-in candidacy. The Republican nominee remains to be determined, as a primary looms on June 22nd between top convention votegetters Mike Lee and Tim Bridgewater.

THE U.S. HOUSE

IN-03: Souder successors begin to rise to the surface
After that respectable period of waiting (which lasted approximately an hour) after Mark Souder's announcement of resignation, interested Republicans began to express interest in being the disgraced incumbent's replacement. The most prominent name being bandied about is Marlin Stutzman, the state legislator who came in a surprisingly strong second place in the Senate primary that just passed. State Rep. Randy Borror might be one step ahead, as he has already begun organizing a campaign apparatus in advance of the party caucus to determine Souder's replacement.

NY-15: Familiar face to challenge incumbent Rangel in Dem primary
The Democratic field to challenge longtime (and scandal-challenged) incumbent Charlie Rangel grew today, with the news that one of his former interns, Craig Schley, would be challenging him. Schley is the second man who was in Rangel's employee to declare for the seat (the first was former Rangel staffer Vincent Morgan). Familiar DK face Jonathan Tasini is also in the Democratic field. Schley ran against Rangel in 2008, with little success.

PA-06: Pike concedes primary to Trivedi, offers endorsement
One of the final loose ends of Primary Night was tied late today, with the news that former Inquirer editorial writer Doug Pike had conceded defeat in the Democratic primary against doctor (and Orange to Blue candidate) Manan Trivedi. Pike also offered his endorsement of Trivedi for the general election, where he will take on perpetually vulnerable incumbent Jim Gerlach.

THE GUBERNATORIAL RACES

AL-Gov: Davis claims internal poll gives him double-digit edge
This isn't the strongest show of strength ever manifested in a campaign internal poll, but for a campaign that has endured some whispering about being on the ropes, it is probably close enough. Artur Davis has released an internal poll showing him leading in the Democratic gubernatorial primary against Ron Sparks. Davis' poll shows him up 46-33 against Sparks, and up 50-25 among African-Americans. If a 50-25 margin among black voters seems strong, remember that Davis himself is African-American. In that context, a 2-to-1 lead (with a quarter still undecided) looks considerably less impressive.

MN-Gov: Dayton leads primary and general election bids
Former U.S. Senator Mark Dayton (D) seems on the verge of a big career comeback, according to a new poll conducted by the University of Minnesota. Dayton has a double-digit edge in the Democratic primary, leading with 38% of the vote. Former state House speaker Margaret Anderson Kelliher trails with 28% of the vote, with former state legislator Matt Etenza sitting on 6% of the vote. In the general election, Dayton is the only Democrat to lead the GOP nominee Tom Emmer (35-31, with 9% of Independent Tom Horner), albeit slightly. In a sign that this could be a very close margin in November, Emmer leads both Kelliher (31-29-10) and Etenza (32-28-11) by similarly slight margins.

NY-Gov: NYGOP about to go to the well again for a contender?
In what has to be seen as a fairly clear sign that there is nothing approaching a consensus Republican candidate to go heads-up with likely Democratic nominee Andrew Cuomo, a fourth name is now being bandied about in connection with the GOP gubernatorial race. His name is M. Myers Mermel, and he had been pondering a bid for Lt. Governor before apparently considering switching gears and running for Governor.

THE RAS-A-POLL-OOZA

In case you missed it, the House of Ras took a brutal (and, it must be said, deserved) shot from Markos this morning.

If the allegation is that Rasmussen is more interested in being a narrative-setter than a dispassionate creator of survey data, nothing in today's polls will disabuse anyone of that allegation.

One editorial note, however: if this new Rasmussen poll in Connecticut is to be believed, then Democratic frontrunner Richard Blumenthal will be just fine. I mean, damn, if Linda McMahon isn't ahead of him now, exactly when could she ever pulled ahead of the guy?

AZ-Sen (R): Sen. John McCain 52%, J.D. Hayworth 40%
AZ-Sen: Sen. John McCain (R) 57%, Rodney Glassman (D) 28%
AZ-Sen: J.D. Hayworth (R) 49%, Rodney Glassman (D) 33%
CT-Sen: Richard Blumenthal (D) 48%, Linda McMahon (R) 45%
CT-Sen: Richard Blumenthal (D) 50%, Rob Simmons (R) 39%
CT-Sen: Richard Blumenthal (D) 53%, Peter Schiff (R) 37%
FL-Gov: Bill McCollum (R) 43%, Alex Sink (D) 35%
FL-Gov: Rick Scott (R) 41%, Alex Sink (D) 40%
NY-Sen: Sen. Kirsten Gillibrand (D) 46%, David Malpass (R) 27%
NY-Sen: Sen. Kirsten Gillibrand (D) 51%, Bruce Blakeman (R) 31%
NY-Sen: Sen. Kirsten Gillibrand (D) 51%, Joe DioGuardi (R) 28%

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NV-Gov: Gibbons the absentee Governor?

Until Monday evening, and the The New York Times' crushing shot at Connecticut Senate aspirant Richard Blumenthal, this profile in the Las Vegas Sun had to be the most unsparing profile of a political candidate in recent history.

Meet Nevada Governor Jim Gibbons, the man whose sole purpose in life appears to be competing with Mark Sanford for the least responsible political executive in America:

When Gibbons was absent or unavailable and something needed to get out, staff would use what is known as an “autopen,” a device that replicates a signature, to sign official documents and letters.

Some staff would joke, “The autopen was the busiest employee in the state,” a former administration official said.

For them, the autopen became a symbol of Gibbons’ tenure. As Nevada endured the worst crisis in its history, he was for months — perhaps years — disengaged from the day-to-day duties of governing, uninterested in public policy and often absent.

The profile is not Gibbons' first brush with infamy. In the midst of his first term, he endured a high-profile divorce from his wife, Dawn, amid allegations of sexual impropriety. He denied this, making the eyebrow-raising claim that he had not have sex with anyone (his wife included) for fifteen years. This claim became a little harder to defend when he went to a White House dinner accompanied by another man's wife, a woman who happened to be one of the women cited by Dawn Gibbons as a mistress to the Governor.

But this is deeper than his own personal pecadilloes. This speaks to his actual performance, or perhaps more appropriately, non-performance, in public office.

Just read this passage. This is a political death blow, by any measure:

The governor’s staff began to prepare its 2009 budget, knowing programs would have to be dramatically cut in response to plunging tax revenue.

In a series of meetings, Gibbons’ core staff gathered to determine how they would balance the budget. Gibbons never attended nor did he provide policy direction beyond “no tax increases, no fee increases,” according to a former official, whose account was confirmed by others.

In his stead, one of Gibbons’ biggest campaign contributors, Monte Miller, and Jim Denton, an outside political adviser, joined by conference call. They would make decisions on weighty matters such as whether to include a room tax increase, what services to cut and the level of pay reduction state employees should take.

Gibbons is, in a wondrous fit of self-delusion, running for re-election, and polls earlier in the Spring showed him bouncing back to parity against former state Attorney General Brian Sandoval. Since then, however, the polls have diverged (a recent Mason Dixon poll had Sandoval leading Gibbons 45-27).

Suffice to say, this profile is likely to do little to resurrect the political prospects of the man honored (in a great parody site by the Nevada Dems) as America's Worst Governor.

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Richard (RJ) Eskow: A Financial War With Two Fronts … And One Wrong General

Things have been moving pretty quickly lately in the interlocking worlds of politics and financial reform. While there is a lot we don't know, here...

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Engineering professor: It’s 95,000 barrels per day

McClatchey:

WASHINGTON — The latest video footage of the leaking Deepwater Horizon oil spill in the Gulf of Mexico show that oil is escaping at the rate of 95,000 barrels — 4 million gallons — a day, nearly 20 times greater than the 5,000 barrel a day estimate BP and government scientists have been citing for nearly three weeks, an engineering professor told a congressional hearing Wednesday.

...

Steve Wereley, an associate professor of mechanical engineering at Purdue University, earlier this month made simple calculations from a video BP released on May 12 and came up with a flow of 70,000 barrels a day, NPR reported last week. Werely on Wednesday told a House Commerce and Energy Committee subcommittee that his calculations of two leaks that show up on videos BP released on Tuesday showed 70,000 barrels from one leak and 25,000 from the other.

To put that in perspective, 95,000 barrels per day is roughly equivalent to an Exxon Valdez size spill every three days. If the oil has been gushing at that rate since the leak began, we're looking at a spill that's already nearly ten times larger than the Exxon Valdez -- and it's still growing.

Wereley says his estimate could be off by as much as 20% in either direction. He told the committee that to establish a more precise calculation of the flow rate from the leaking wells he would need access to ongoing footage from the leaking wells, something which BP has repeatedly refused to provide.

Today, however, under extreme pressure from Congress, BP finally relented.

Hours after hearing a demand from a congressional chairman, BP announced the oil company would provide a live broadcast of the oil spill from a government website.

“This may be BP’s footage, but it’s America’s ocean," Massachusetts Democrat Rep. Edward Markey, the chairman who made the demand, said in a statement. "Now anyone will be able to see the real-time effects the BP spill is having on our ocean."

The chairman of a congressional subcommittee called on BP to release live video feeds of the oil gushing from a blown-out well in the Gulf of Mexico.

Earlier Wednesday, Markey demanded the broadcast so independent scientists could more accurately calculate the flow rate. He questioned why such data wasn't readily being made public.

Markey says the livestream will be available on his committee website as early as tonight.

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Lloyd Garver: Is Wall Street Bluffing?

According to the Los Angeles Times, some Wall Street firms don't care if a new job applicant went to business school or studied finance....

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Nancy Pelosi, ineffective boogeyman

House Democrats have won seven special elections in a row, including four since Obama was inaugurated. Their opponents all had one big overriding issue in common:

New York 20th, March 31, 2009

Republican Jim Tedisco's platform? Nancy Pelosi is scary.

“I think he’s Nancy Pelosi’s worst nightmare,” said State Senator Roy McDonald, who until this year represented other parts of Saratoga County in the Assembly. “He’s not going to remain silent and take orders.”

Fred Thomspon:

America is waking up to the flawed thinking and outright dangerous schemes of Nancy Pelosi and Harry Reid’s Congress and the Obama Administration. Opposition is building every day. If Jim Tedisco wins this seat, it will be a very public repudiation. A Tedisco victory will start the process of building an effective opposition to the Obama-Pelosi agenda, and send a clear message: conservatives aren’t going to let the extremist left in Washington strip us of our rights and freedoms.

Giuliani:

"I'm calling to ask you to join me in supporting Jim Tedisco for congress this Tuesday March 31," reads the script. "This congressional race could come down to a few hundred votes and yours could be the difference between victory and defeat. Jim Tedisco's victory will ensure that we have a voice in Congress that will stand up to Nancy Pelosi, and all her plans to hike taxes and spending by trillions of dollars. Please join me, Rudy Giuliani, in support Jim Tedisco this Tuesday."

California 10th, November 3, 2009

Republican David Harmer's platform? Nancy Pelosi is scary.

Conservatives criticized [Democratic opponent John] Garamendi's support for a government-run insurance plan in health care reform legislation in Congress and sent out mailers linking him with Pelosi, D-San Francisco.

Now, Harmer has decided to target Rep. Jerry McNerney in the neighboring CA-11th, and thinks the same message will somehow yield different results:

"Jerry McNerney claims to be a moderate Democrat, but his voting record is well to left of his district. On every significant vote, he supports the liberal agenda of House Speaker Nancy Pelosi.

New York 23rd, November 3, 2009

Conservative Doug Hoffman's platform? Nancy Pelosi is scary.

Conservative party candidate Doug Hoffman is up with a new ad blasting Democrat Bill Owens as a lackey of House Speaker Nancy Pelosi.

“Nancy Pelosi hand-picked Bill Owens for Congress and bankrolls his campaign. You know what that means,” the ad says.

“So when Pelosi wants Owens’ vote for her massive energy taxes, government-run medicine and a trillion dollar deficit, where would Bill Owens stand: With you or with her?”

Hoffman didn't get the hint with his loss, and he continues to run on his anti-Pelosi platform.

Pennsylvania 12th, yesterday:

Republican Tim Burns' platform? Nancy Pelosi is scary.

Burns made the race about Pelosi and often featured her in his TV commercials. If "Nancy Pelosi's values are your values, then Mark Critz is your candidate," Burns said in a TV ad.

More:

In a new ad supporting Republican Tim Burns, who's running for the seat vacated by the late Rep. Jack Murtha (D-PA), the group RightChange.com depicts an animated Nancy Pelosi as a cross between Frankenstein's monster and Godzilla.

Obama and Harry Reid play the roles of mad scientists. As they flip switches for bailouts and taxes, Pelosi is zapped and grows to terrifying size. Then she stomps on a factory, a home and goes berserk on a suburban street. The only thing that can stop her? Laser-like beams fired from Tim Burns campaign pins.

The result of these elections? Democrats won. Apparently, Nancy Pelosi just isn't that scary. But these crazies listen to their Pelosi-obsessed base and convince themselves that their hatred will translate to the rest of the electorate. It won't.

People don't hate Pelosi. And given the choice between a campaign talking issues, and a campaign screaming about Pelosi, the voters are making the same choice every single time -- even in districts (like NY-23) in which Democrats hadn't represented since the 1850s, or in a McCain district like PA-12.

It turns out that Pelosi sucks as a boogeyman. She's terrible at it! But as long as the GOP doesn't figure that out, their hopes for massive gains will definitely come up short.

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Dwayne Bowe Deals On Groupie Love In The NFL: ‘They Call It Importing’

In this week's edition of ESPN the Magazine, Kansas City Chiefs WR Dwayne Bowe provided some interesting anecdotes from his life for the magazine's "lifestyle" section. Most of the time we hear the typical cliches from features like this—you kn...

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Eric Simpson: Sarah Palin, Glenn Beck, and Fundamentalist Voodoo

The Evangelical Right doesn't accurately represent either authentic Christianity or traditional conservative thought. The end result is an insidious conflation that combines apocalyptic fears with political zeal posturing as religious fervor.

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Michael Kimmel: Lacrosse and the Entitled Elite Male Athlete

From the outside, George Huguely had it all. Such guys are the epitome of the "culture of entitlement." They think they can do anything they want and get away with it, and usually they're right.

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US Top Scientists: Global Warming Is So Urgent, Coal And Oil Should Be More Expensive

WASHINGTON -- Ditching its past cautious tone, the nation's top scientists urged the government Wednesday to take drastic action to raise the cost of using coal and oil to slow global warming. The National Academy of Sciences specifically cal...

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